Movies · resolved market
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf1c8b48256278e5db45ee328217ca199a869b1ccfa63c696092bc2e73e5a2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 3c | 6,050$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 2c | 4,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,971$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 1c | 1,945$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 75c | 1,588$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.47 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 55c | 1,584$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.09 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…beb8backed No | 1c | 1,043$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 53c | 861.73$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 12c | 844.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…2d7bbacked No | 54c | 842.01$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 51c | 841.48$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.28 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 39c | 580.29$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.39 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 27c | 579.31$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.97 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked No | 50c | 500$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 51c | 462.16$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.79 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 31c | 294.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 39c | 253.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…c27abacked No | 47c | 196.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 48c | 185$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 50c | 120.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 103.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 48c | 103.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…552fbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…ece8backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…de9cbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 48c | 92.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…cd6bbacked Yes | 53c | 74.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ae83backed Yes | 57c | 72.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…e2e5backed No | 57c | 60.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 45c | 50.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…eaf2backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…a4fdbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…e248backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked No | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 50c | 32.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8317…18e3backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c77…a483backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b54…a44dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 60c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?this page
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 31m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 33m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.