Movies · resolved market
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 31m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca38d905953c8067a6aa50f5745d65c11dd1a85a7559071dcaa4c62249e4b302
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 6c | 9,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,930$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,673$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 5c | 1,040$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 10c | 580.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…ca54backed Yes | 18c | 510.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…1b78backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 14c | 289.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 22c | 250$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 8c | 239.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…3f66backed No | 77c | 224.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…de9cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 163.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…08f9backed Yes | 9c | 140$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 130.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…7e93backed Yes | 16c | 128.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…79f0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…abe0backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7327backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 31m?this page
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 33m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?Yes won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.