Movies · resolved market
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf78adb2346f3ebfdd867f4c3b8a82ece2f1b882184ccf56f3c2494d79a74cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,401$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 4c | 1,329$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…c3eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 10c | 580.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Yes | 4c | 447.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 10c | 404.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Yes | 20c | 400$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 274.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 249.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 14c | 216.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…3061backed Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f2…beb8backed Yes | 10c | 110.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…246bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…3f66backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…e79fbacked Yes | 18c | 75.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 55c | 23.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?this page
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 31m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 33m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.