Movies · resolved market
Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 33m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d53158ea5ce545b9384e81c25fa65ba70ce7a12210dbfc2e1c609dc8a5f246c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01bf…070dbacked Yes | 2c | 18,395$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,669$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 1c | 2,267$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 38c | 1,417$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.29 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,239$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.69 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…077ebacked No | 62c | 900$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 36c | 580$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…36a6backed Yes | 3c | 418.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 38c | 400.41$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed Yes | 36c | 350$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 65c | 346.89$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 36c | 260$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 30c | 218.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…7536backed No | 69c | 208$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…de9cbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 196.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 64c | 195$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…3f66backed No | 62c | 167.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 124$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ae83backed Yes | 37c | 104.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…79f0backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…abc0backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2a…ca06backed No | 65c | 80.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 36c | 50.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…5c90backed No | 63c | 40.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…1abfbacked Yes | 40c | 40.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7327backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…abe0backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…e248backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 33m?this page
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 31m?No won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m?Yes won
- Will "Predator: Badlands" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.