Movies · resolved market
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a3a1f568dcd1bca2a73b5678b48dda274ef3af4cf7ab6c4ba7abaa80ad95ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241a…28d6backed No | 0c | 49,801$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…2228backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…08b0backed No | 1c | 18,989$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 8,562$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 54c | 8,331$4,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,798.81 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 24c | 4,358$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.3 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 3,549$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 1c | 3,433$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 68c | 2,708$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.08 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed Yes | 58c | 2,506$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 39c | 2,428$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.76 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed No | 1c | 1,962$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 78c | 1,785$1,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.05 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 43c | 1,580$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 1,379$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.05 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…59a7backed No | 1c | 1,261$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 53c | 1,195$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked No | 44c | 1,030$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 23c | 1,013$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 24c | 1,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2b…12e3backed Yes | 66c | 904.06$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 902.45$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.89 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 39c | 769.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…7f5cbacked No | 21c | 750$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 61c | 749.99$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.49 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked No | 58c | 739.2$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.58 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 58c | 693.77$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.77 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 24c | 666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 76c | 605.56$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked No | 25c | 600$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 586.74$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.37 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 69c | 520.41$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.14 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 53c | 515$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 453.86$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…7242backed Yes | 55c | 365.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 47c | 360$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 13c | 333$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 79c | 324.07$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.51 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 319.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…4dddbacked No | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 79c | 215$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 31c | 179.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 79c | 172.84$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 78c | 98.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 78c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 80c | 88.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ac…091ebacked No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 58.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed No | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 80c | 50.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8636backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…9b54backed Yes | 79c | 37.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…0592backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6af…6a27backed Yes | 79c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…8acebacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?this page
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?No won
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?No won
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.