Movies · resolved market
Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x017266abb6b963c0ce8cd57d70e1f615b2484329d697ff743af040eaac2d389a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71a9…2228backed Yes | 0c | 37,211$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 15,887$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.94 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241a…28d6backed Yes | 0c | 14,853$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 0c | 7,853$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 25c | 5,855$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.44 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,742$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 4,326$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d7…3fabbacked No | 65c | 2,263$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,753$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.67 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 27c | 1,496$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,430$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…08b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,426$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 8c | 1,348$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.17 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 21c | 1,348$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 33c | 1,248$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.36 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.7 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 916$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 79c | 770.11$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.76 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 53c | 749.04$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed No | 65c | 658.88$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 4c | 605.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 540.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 17c | 526.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…f47abacked Yes | 2c | 449.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 443.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 414.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 53c | 380.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2df3backed Yes | 13c | 371.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 14c | 333$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 19c | 315$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 70c | 234$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 66c | 232.28$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 41c | 121.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…3b2fbacked Yes | 18c | 106.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452d…6812backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 24c | 96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 92.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 16c | 66.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 57.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 43c | 46.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 73c | 44.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 25c | 40.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $34m and $39m?this page
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?No won
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $29m?No won
- Will "Weapons" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $39m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.