World Politics · resolved market
Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x613b71559986b5bc505d6c65bd7d40ae18d71ee974db309b010fcbee60ec0c77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,586$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.12 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,552$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.28 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 1,448$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.82 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 16c | 813.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.56 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 17c | 655.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.33 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 14c | 480.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 15c | 453.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.89 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 431.11$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.58 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 17c | 400$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.29 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 16c | 301.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.13 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 18c | 275$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…541dbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 14c | 163.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…d248backed Yes | 15c | 124.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +561.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae67…faf1backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 17c | 93.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 22c | 83.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 10?this page
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 12?Yes won
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.