World Politics · resolved market
Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb48c5b13d6393fa59fb89cfd4ddbcad0bafa4f579bf04853d6b199eba6fb073d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 5c | 2,150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 64c | 909.69$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.25 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked No | 36c | 661.29$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 59c | 448.52$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 44c | 311$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 78c | 216.67$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 56c | 197$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 65c | 118.79$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 113.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked No | 32c | 109.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked No | 41c | 109.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 35c | 106.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 102.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…9f55backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…46adbacked No | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…5130backed Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed Yes | 65c | 76.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 58c | 69.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…0e7dbacked No | 42c | 69.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 68.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 57.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…45bdbacked Yes | 70c | 57.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 26c | 52.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 57c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…47ffbacked Yes | 66c | 27.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…b709backed Yes | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 12?this page
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 10?Yes won
- Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.