Us Politics · resolved market
Will Epstein Data Set 9 be released before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66754d9d2fcc8735c33e04aeddbb7a68ac3cb16e8cd2355cc28a8249ab1e6b4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 76c | 3,781$2,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 53c | 2,949$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 49c | 2,299$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.34 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 29c | 1,000$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 34c | 900$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 36c | 830.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 807.12$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.64 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed No | 45c | 704$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 35c | 600$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 68c | 561.35$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 29c | 504.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.17 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.3 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 33c | 500$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -13.0wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…3f1bbacked Yes | 60c | 410.31$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…5551backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 64c | 353.44$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 27c | 305$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 11c | 285.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…acefbacked No | 35c | 283.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 6c | 247.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…398ebacked No | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +325.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 219.38$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 22c | 217.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…d4a9backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Yes | 69c | 197.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 31c | 185$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 180.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 35c | 180$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 47c | 176.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 30c | 171.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 33c | 169.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 36c | 156.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…1c7bbacked No | 28c | 144.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 65c | 112.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 34c | 111.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9a…a1f5backed No | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…6858backed No | 38c | 109.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…1a38backed No | 30c | 101.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +5.7wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…51acbacked No | 44c | 83.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…98aebacked No | 25c | 75.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb268…8bb7backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed No | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 66.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 66c | 66.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked No | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 40c | 44.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 33c | 44.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0be…ff72backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…1cf4backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…c891backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 33c | 35.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 33c | 34.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…352cbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked Yes | 66c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…112cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…82f1backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db6…54adbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…f7f1backed Yes | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…bc30backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…7fd7backed Yes | 73c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 67c | 15.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb30…ac81backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.