Us Politics · resolved market
Will TikTok be banned in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa27678603469e4197276dfeb03521d4ae97f1b1090029da4270391a3f5e7effc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 19c | 3,414$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.02 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 3,106$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 2c | 2,264$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 1,959$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 9c | 1,836$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.41 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 12cpaid | +185%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,724$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 68c | 1,490$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,433$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,159$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 929.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 25c | 900$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 68c | 785.07$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.87 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 2c | 660$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 32c | 570$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 549.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 486.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe247…81aebacked Yes | 11c | 399.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 396$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 12c | 350.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…73e9backed Yes | 29c | 300.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 293.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 4c | 257.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 73c | 255$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 79c | 237.56$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 6c | 227.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…2581backed Yes | 23c | 208.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 16c | 205$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 38c | 204.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…d835backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…feb2backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 79c | 149.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed No | 74c | 134.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 72c | 127.67$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…a16abacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…3836backed No | 74c | 104.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…312abacked No | 79c | 88.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…4743backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…25b5backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 79c | 65.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 22c | 59.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed No | 76c | 55.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 28c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 25c | 50.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 56c | 42.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9200backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf711…72c5backed No | 76c | 39.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…fc91backed No | 78c | 35.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 65c | 33.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 57cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…f33fbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ba…f0a2backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd4…8598backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…d93dbacked No | 79c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f1…71bbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…abfebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…0d48backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd3…c3a1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…a6d2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…9401backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2928…694ebacked No | 74c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.