Middle East · resolved market
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b7cb9ae5dfcf8a7dca2075d5ea7f0d4eeead9192c1823426a3b0a60c90fc73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 12c | 4,984$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.12 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 11c | 4,894$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.43 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,591$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.36 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 21c | 1,377$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.66 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,368$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa56a…939ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,032$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…a364backed Yes | 10c | 1,032$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 13c | 999.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…4fdbbacked Yes | 9c | 999$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4fcdbacked Yes | 9c | 999$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…a353backed Yes | 8c | 952.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…8ffabacked Yes | 8c | 946$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…7c2abacked Yes | 8c | 937.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…2922backed Yes | 9c | 934.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd8…1f6bbacked Yes | 9c | 931$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…2c59backed Yes | 9c | 929.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…4cccbacked Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…e177backed Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85a…23a4backed Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71f…7e60backed Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…b548backed Yes | 7c | 910$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…ff14backed Yes | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…9687backed Yes | 8c | 900$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…aea0backed Yes | 9c | 899.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326f…1ad5backed Yes | 10c | 890$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…0721backed Yes | 10c | 872$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…2e99backed Yes | 13c | 841.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 15c | 759.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 10c | 469.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 459.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 14c | 402.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 14c | 324.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 299.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 299.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…3637backed Yes | 18c | 279.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…dd2bbacked Yes | 20c | 260$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 14c | 218.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes | 6c | 214.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 161.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15c…78ccbacked Yes | 15c | 138.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4641…e469backed Yes | 14c | 130.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 11c | 124.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 73c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…3897backed Yes | 15c | 104.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Yes | 14c | 93.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 16c | 91.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…cf4cbacked Yes | 17c | 70.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…d2ebbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa602…1104backed Yes | 23c | 48.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fb…2163backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.