Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d71eebfeac93509b5d1061725583b8df364823d816be3b2284b07cfa913f20a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 80c | 2,034$1,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.7 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 20c | 1,955$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 16c | 1,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 9c | 1,089$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 21c | 641.9$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 608.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 10c | 556.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 409.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…79ccbacked Yes | 20c | 372.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 359.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 21c | 353.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 80c | 340$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 74c | 299.61$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 25c | 242.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed Yes | 21c | 239.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 13c | 231.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 26c | 215.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 25c | 215.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 8c | 214.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 205.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 73c | 203.07$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +57%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 16c | 155.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 27c | 112.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…d677backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2823…10c5backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e51…53cabacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 76c | 79.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 71.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 75c | 71.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…9f6cbacked No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…7d20backed No | 71c | 63.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4f…c055backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fb…4471backed No | 80c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?this page
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.