TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62e8…c7f6backed No55c2,973$1,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.4814147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No4c2,020$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3620026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b78…4d2fbacked No77c1,562$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.01366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes47c1,472$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.5411530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c1,353$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.126835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes41c1,213$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.041040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Yes29c977.07$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+69.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c972.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.625327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c948.2$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.754117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes27c798.71$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.472025%5 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1410…a67dbacked No49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2943644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes37c600$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3784825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fa7…c623backed Yes28c553.4$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.95911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-60.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No77c531.96$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No15c490.23$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.531717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No54c434.93$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.9411040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c379.64$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No75c352.71$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.262560%15 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdea…a777backed No63c350$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked Yes50c349.64$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.84540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c325.61$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes30c316.7$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c315.97$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.7517232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed No65c309.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9057…c47ebacked No64c309.13$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes32c292$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.925123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No21c277.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.145038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37ee…e4dabacked Yes38c263.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No61c259.18$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.16033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a7…19c5backed No78c256.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+70.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.275352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes46c249.2$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.312250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes30c246.35$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.628936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0293…f15bbacked No49c243.62$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No67c240.74$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.311050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes21c239.28$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.038247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes21c238.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.581414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes33c233.45$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.891855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d5…79ccbacked Yes34c232.36$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.49922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes22c204$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1212937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78d4…e42bbacked Yes50c202$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-77.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962969%20 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No47c199.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+57%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8160…e1a0backed Yes52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+115.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed5d…bc81backed No52c191.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1912547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b92…0a99backed Yes35c170.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed No61c160.16$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.551855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes41c160$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.871154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes25c159.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.595810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked No51c156.55$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No47c132.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4429416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes25c130.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick13cpaid+281.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No62c128.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6814239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes39c127.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.462944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…647abacked No79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+33%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ae…e412backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd68a…97b1backed No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.98337.3%31 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+166.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x387e…56a5backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6203…b399backed Yes52c99.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes51c99.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.996431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb531…efbbbacked Yes25c96.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7217…a87cbacked Yes53c95.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No50c88$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes36c87.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.313321.2%7 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e84…ef69backed Yes48c83.79$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.163917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd349…bc73backed Yes31c83.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.941861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4332…975dbacked Yes52c80.63$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed No61c80$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.41952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d09ebacked Yes49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7094…530abacked Yes28c72.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.121827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No57c72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.891040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes30c70.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.36742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf816…a7b1backed No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No77c68.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.041520%3 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-69.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes36c67.98$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc90…9e95backed Yes53c67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0fb…1206backed Yes27c66.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No57c64.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9917122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d12…ab54backed No67c60.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes33c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed No75c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed Yes35c57.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.576650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0926318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes23c51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.441040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No73c50.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.134452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc27c…d338backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+159.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.56051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62eb…a3b6backed No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No75c46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.54553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc576…b888backed No69c43.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c43.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7611840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.