Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4692f594e7500d445481ce540ca5458cb036490d33f299418c181d62df62d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 55c | 2,973$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634.48 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 4c | 2,020$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 77c | 1,562$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 47c | 1,472$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.54 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,353$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.1 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,213$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yes | 29c | 977.07$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 972.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 948.2$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 27c | 798.71$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…c623backed Yes | 28c | 553.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 77c | 531.96$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 15c | 490.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 54c | 434.93$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.94 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 379.64$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 75c | 352.71$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 63c | 350$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…a55cbacked Yes | 50c | 349.64$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 325.61$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.57 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 30c | 316.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.16 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 315.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.75 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed No | 65c | 309.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 64c | 309.13$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 32c | 292$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.92 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 21c | 277.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37ee…e4dabacked Yes | 38c | 263.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 61c | 259.18$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…19c5backed No | 78c | 256.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 46c | 249.2$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 30c | 246.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.62 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked No | 49c | 243.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 67c | 240.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 21c | 239.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.03 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 21c | 238.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 33c | 233.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.89 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…79ccbacked Yes | 34c | 232.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 22c | 204$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.12 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…e42bbacked Yes | 50c | 202$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 47c | 199.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +57%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…e1a0backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…bc81backed No | 52c | 191.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…0a99backed Yes | 35c | 170.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +183.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 61c | 160.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 25c | 159.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 51c | 156.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 132.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 25c | 130.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 13cpaid | +281.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 62c | 128.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes | 39c | 127.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd68a…97b1backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…56a5backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…b399backed Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb531…efbbbacked Yes | 25c | 96.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…a87cbacked Yes | 53c | 95.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed No | 50c | 88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 36c | 87.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 48c | 83.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…bc73backed Yes | 31c | 83.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4332…975dbacked Yes | 52c | 80.63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d09ebacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…530abacked Yes | 28c | 72.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 30c | 70.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf816…a7b1backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 77c | 68.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 67.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…9e95backed Yes | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…1206backed Yes | 27c | 66.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 57c | 64.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d12…ab54backed No | 67c | 60.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed Yes | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 73c | 50.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc27c…d338backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc576…b888backed No | 69c | 43.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 43.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?this page
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.