Movies · resolved market
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161ca6a69a225e1ece9c9c1187ec240f75a3d80ceb56830961211d438b0162c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 1c | 57,449$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 1c | 23,545$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.53 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 28c | 15,408$4,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370.96 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 71c | 13,841$9,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.11 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 24c | 2,652$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.18 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,021$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.27 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec2…cb66backed Yes | 69c | 1,661$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed Yes | 37c | 1,588$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,365$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 13c | 1,257$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 36c | 1,226$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.14 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 30c | 1,104$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 22c | 1,050$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 75c | 988.45$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 53c | 983.57$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.57 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 47c | 949.99$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…374ebacked Yes | 22c | 945.71$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 32c | 929.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.65 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 76c | 868$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 16c | 774$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 764.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.53 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 68c | 699.82$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.45 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…94b6backed Yes | 4c | 673.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 633.16$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 59c | 598.57$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.07 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked No | 58c | 520$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 63c | 518.23$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 77c | 508.38$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 508.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…0182backed Yes | 17c | 490.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 11c | 453.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 32c | 405.53$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.08 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 26c | 356.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 300.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 292.55$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.7 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 48c | 268.66$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 251.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 75c | 247.17$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Yes | 41c | 246.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked Yes | 69c | 200$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 198.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 27c | 184.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…6eddbacked Yes | 71c | 180.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8049…b09dbacked Yes | 27c | 147.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…874ebacked Yes | 24c | 145.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 38c | 144.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed Yes | 25c | 142.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 35c | 135$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 43c | 122.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 46c | 119.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 36c | 110$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…a993backed Yes | 21c | 106.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed Yes | 47c | 85.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 30c | 85.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 44c | 85.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63be…18bbbacked Yes | 42c | 67.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 48c | 57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…da0bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…0b8bbacked Yes | 50c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df4…d698backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…5e05backed Yes | 58c | 21.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked Yes | 78c | 17.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?this page
- Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3-3.5m?Yes won
- Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $3.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.