Movies · resolved market
Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3-3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81ffd09f4ad12993d7890734dcefb68438f437b1eec25db2ec13222a7a56960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 59c | 2,562$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.94 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,202$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.36 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 61c | 1,765$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.19 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,602$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 55c | 909.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.82 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 71c | 847.76$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.96 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 53c | 646.62$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.94 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 62c | 580.68$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 32c | 574.82$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.69 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 65c | 527.57$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.41 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 73c | 352.29$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 46c | 326.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.38 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed No | 25c | 315.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 63c | 265.84$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 19c | 259.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked No | 16c | 250.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 56c | 241.59$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 237.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…bd1fbacked Yes | 57c | 232.5$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 63c | 188.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 55c | 163.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 36c | 138$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 36c | 129.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 122.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed Yes | 65c | 122.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed No | 24c | 117.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 114$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 20c | 105.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 73c | 103.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb45…cd33backed Yes | 28c | 89.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Yes | 57c | 54.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…374ebacked Yes | 20c | 50.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63be…18bbbacked No | 78c | 47.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…fa1fbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…a98bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 51c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $3-3.5m?this page
- Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $3m?No won
- Will "Honey Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $3.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.