Movies · resolved market
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271d514c1914092e270cad587aa6e1a92476cb39de4b360fe2591f767097a493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 7,168$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 2c | 6,223$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 6,065$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554f…0520backed Yes | 1c | 3,520$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,750$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,124$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,003$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 911.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 4c | 630.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 28c | 355.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 68c | 205.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?this page
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?No won
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.