Movies · resolved market
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc824b4b07a1606d9aaf69bb90e404d6366db84df4127df72bf2acce8a083ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 26c | 4,947$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.73 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 67c | 4,617$3,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.64 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 4,155$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 76c | 3,980$3,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.92 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 21c | 2,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 64c | 1,492$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.16 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked No | 1c | 1,396$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 1c | 1,090$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 960.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 862.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 3c | 829.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked No | 4c | 750$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 10c | 722.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 6c | 654.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 23c | 477.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked No | 35c | 436.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 78c | 417.72$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed No | 4c | 380$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 64c | 367.05$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 26c | 316$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed No | 16c | 307.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 23c | 293.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 36c | 261.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.68 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 73c | 254.67$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 40c | 219.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.03 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 204.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed No | 60c | 172.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.98 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 67c | 120.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 13c | 103.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 71c | 81.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 72.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 35c | 68.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08af…1759backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?this page
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?No won
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.