Movies · resolved market
Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4d285bd2bf95064198845e188137d425954a1235dd9b21742c8c51ecee26e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,489$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,862$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.31 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 17c | 3,541$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.84 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 8c | 2,925$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,163$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 11c | 1,983$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 2c | 1,316$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed Yes | 10c | 1,039$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…481fbacked Yes | 26c | 733.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 10c | 676.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 14c | 530$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 33c | 425$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.75 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 5c | 349.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…1e39backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 243.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 73c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 24c | 66.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 23c | 65.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 43.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $8.5-10m?this page
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $8.5m?Yes won
- Will "Caught Stealing" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.