TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No33c3,211$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.8733123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed Yes72c2,156$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.281650%8 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes65c1,105$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.7148236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes66c1,071$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…6069backed No34c976.65$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.84148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No34c848$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.682536%9 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes71c814.33$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.5823741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes63c806$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.964434.1%15 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No35c735.25$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.472020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Yes65c714$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.13132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes65c672$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7724634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No56c642$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8c…b99bbacked No34c580.7$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.871844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes65c580.16$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.964445.5%20 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed Yes66c580$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No30c428.66$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.1520841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked Yes44c405$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No35c403$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.952231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Yes59c371$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.893135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed No41c371$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.892931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d89…53a0backed Yes70c359$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes69c341.08$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.926641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked No35c324$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No40c322.9$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.52552%13 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes24c292.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.329745.4%44 W · 53 L+22.0wins+0.23per pick23cpaid+88%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No35c278.15$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.5916741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No34c265$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.92540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c255.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.141,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes72c243.43$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No39c237.83$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.991,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed Yes44c237$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ee1…fcf5backed No33c230.57$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+41.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb8…68d4backed Yes56c210$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No28c201.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.928752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…5228backed No30c191.94$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.573925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+23.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Yes64c163$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick60cpaid-65.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked Yes66c157$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200e…49c9backed Yes65c153.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfd…00c6backed Yes69c151.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7544…0caebacked No34c150$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No36c149$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.361040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No36c147.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.945444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed Yes17c146$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.821136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x950d…c5d2backed No30c140$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No28c139.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9612938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9677…116fbacked Yes79c120.54$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf29…3f46backed Yes73c119.35$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-49.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes67c104.29$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9920668.9%142 W · 64 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes70c103$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.014030%12 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No27c90.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.821549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c90.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4248414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No33c79.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9934651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x723e…0275backed Yes67c74.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb653…b87fbacked Yes71c70.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.11650%8 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes65c68.6$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.542236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes64c64.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.347931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe004…7849backed Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf709…23a3backed No35c59.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes62c56.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8713333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x96da…69ffbacked Yes63c55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+14.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17dc…aff8backed No39c51.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.691729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes73c50.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.82941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.513130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd36c…d7a2backed No35c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c49.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7215641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x296c…9e76backed No40c49.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.275100%5 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+201.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc3ed…afd3backed No41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.781464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No38c48.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.116015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x72b2…5548backed Yes64c47.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef3…b420backed No37c46.14$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.87875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1562…0cfcbacked No25c43.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fe7…3d0abacked Yes74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No27c38.73$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2713851.4%71 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7275…31eabacked No54c36.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d3c…3ebcbacked Yes64c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…99aabacked Yes66c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8543…e28abacked Yes56c34.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes63c34.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.625549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2db…9070backed Yes64c31.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed Yes66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…728abacked Yes67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.14544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac89…d334backed Yes73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No44c27.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.282821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-62.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed No44c27.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.222532%8 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d07…6555backed No44c26.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+36.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes62c17.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1114337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.