Movies · resolved market
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9732348aa5b241dd3e847812e1f64a7d967acdfb89bd42fae7f1291f501cf9dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacf…0ba0backed Yes | 7c | 1,235$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 7c | 824.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked Yes | 11c | 388$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 11c | 374$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 7c | 370.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 326.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 305.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 17c | 298.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…e28abacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 112.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 25c | 99.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed Yes | 18c | 97.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…15a6backed No | 78c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Ethan Hawke win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Joel Edgerton win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.