Movies · resolved market
Will Michael B. Jordan win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4137c27fbf1e4b0a5144509d2f7fd0f40a87a62ee79c1598f6cbf694452a2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 24c | 579$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.78 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed No | 76c | 551$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 24c | 467$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 76c | 372$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 76c | 355$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.87 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 9c | 343$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.43 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 17c | 255.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.79 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 24c | 232$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 12c | 225$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.76 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 212.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.9 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 50c | 172.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a75…f655backed Yes | 21c | 119.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf66…2c8bbacked Yes | 26c | 109$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191c…57fabacked Yes | 26c | 104$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +244.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…d3cabacked No | 74c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…4c36backed No | 74c | 72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…06fcbacked Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed5…e5fabacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 22c | 62.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4f…6e52backed Yes | 38c | 52.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +408.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 51.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…c2c6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…6037backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +281.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…9bc6backed Yes | 51c | 39.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b93…ccb5backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 35.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…6aafbacked No | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 74c | 30.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3716…e4a3backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844c…6651backed No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Ethan Hawke win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Jesse Plemons win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Joel Edgerton win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.