World Politics · resolved market
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a55156056596a6cd6f9e06a854c3e1908a2e1dbd8c16057fc099477e9d3b31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bf…451cbacked No | 17c | 6,750$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…76f0backed No | 18c | 1,707$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…bc5cbacked No | 23c | 1,659$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…e071backed No | 13c | 1,587$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.32 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 15c | 1,457$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x078c…b715backed No | 21c | 1,437$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…5c4ebacked No | 8c | 839.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked No | 15c | 622$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 15c | 590$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 15c | 589$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 16c | 533$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10eb…848bbacked No | 17c | 524.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d2…dd71backed No | 19c | 511.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 9c | 500.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…d089backed No | 20c | 498.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 17c | 455$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 440.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 17c | 426$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…6630backed No | 18c | 382.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 16c | 380$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed No | 16c | 371$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 16c | 292.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…6f2cbacked No | 15c | 216.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 36cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…d9c3backed No | 23c | 215.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…7d04backed No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 80c | 135.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6d…854ebacked Yes | 79c | 126.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 80c | 126$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 14c | 114.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543c…9226backed No | 10c | 103.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 15c | 103.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 15c | 103.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 15c | 101.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…2fffbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.33per pick | 41cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48bb…1d9ebacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…85f8backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +75%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 17c | 98.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…a6abbacked No | 14c | 95.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 18c | 93.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 77.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…754ebacked No | 13c | 76.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 78c | 71.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 16c | 68.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 16c | 68.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…f135backed Yes | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked No | 25c | 43.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdb…97c1backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…cf6ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…4391backed Yes | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?this page
- Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?Yes won
- Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.