TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf55c…a6ab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
204
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST14171.6%101 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 141 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigersbacked Auburn Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.84
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. UCLA Bruinsbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$14.23
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Oral Roberts Golden Eaglesbacked Oral Roberts Golden Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.59
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Bradley Bravesbacked Bradley Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.59
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. Coppin State Eaglesbacked Coppin State Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+44.9%+$5.31
Western Michigan Broncos vs. Central Michigan Chippewasbacked Central Michigan Chippewas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+37%+$3.92
Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$4.76
Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojansbacked USC Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.67
UNCW Seahawks vs. Campbell Fighting Camelsbacked Campbell Fighting Camels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.83
Troy Trojans vs. South Alabama Jaguarsbacked South Alabama Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.65
Arizona Wildcats vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.38
Texas Longhorns vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.32
Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. Sam Houston Bearkatsbacked Sam Houston Bearkats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.75
Washington Huskies vs. Maryland Terrapinsbacked Washington Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Miami Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+42.9%+$5.64
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodoresbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.16
Samford Bulldogs vs. Mercer Bearsbacked Mercer Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+44.9%+$5.37
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocksbacked South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.62
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Syracuse Orangebacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.35
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Appalachian State Mountaineersbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.76
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$13.74
Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigersbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.24
East Carolina Pirates vs. Charlotte 49ersbacked Charlotte 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.95
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Detroit Titansbacked Milwaukee Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$14.41
Niagara Purple Eagles vs. Mount St. Mary's Mountaineersbacked Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6.08
Showing 25 of 141 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST2360.9%14 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.14
76ers vs. Pelicansbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.26
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+38.9%+$6.04
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.03
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+40.8%+$4.8
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Cavaliers vs. Hornetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.67
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14.41
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14.41
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Raptors vs. Bullsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$5.34
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$5.32
Hawks vs. 76ersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.39
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.64
Team World vs. Team USA Stripesbacked Team World · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$14.51
Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripesbacked Team USA Stripes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+49.3%+$7.42
Team World vs. Team USA Starsbacked Team World · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$16.01
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+39.8%+$7.21
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+37%+$6.34
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25.53
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+37%+$6.81
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25.53
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$12.2
All 23 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.09
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+35.1%+$3.69
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.4
Will Sevilla FC vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+37%+$5.14
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$17.67
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$17.54
Will Elche CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.27
Will Elche CF win on 2026-02-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$4.13
All 9 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick76cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$29.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.