Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Bradley Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77da2eeeef8d04312cbee4f1dc8820e92d89c3412720c3ec074530ba4c44d431
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bradley Bravesof Illinois State Redbirds, Bradley Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Bradley Braves | 62c | 6,505$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.51 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Illinois State Redbirds | 37c | 6,190$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.42 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 13c | 4,040$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.07 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Bradley Braves | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Illinois State Redbirds | 39c | 2,960$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.4 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 38c | 1,521$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.05 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Illinois State Redbirds | 8c | 1,214$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bradley Braves | 62c | 1,172$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.36 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bradley Braves | 63c | 1,008$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bradley Braves | 74c | 866.06$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.46 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bradley Braves | 64c | 709.03$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.22 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 3c | 655.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 493 | 45.4%224 W · 269 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Illinois State Redbirds | 37c | 541$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Illinois State Redbirds | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Illinois State Redbirds | 6c | 238.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Bradley Braves | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Illinois State Redbirds | 24c | 187.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bradley Braves | 78c | 180.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois State Redbirds | 24c | 175.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 35c | 172$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 507 | 45.2%229 W · 278 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Bradley Braves | 62c | 161.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bradley Braves | 76c | 120.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Illinois State Redbirds | 35c | 108.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 219 | 37.4%82 W · 137 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Illinois State Redbirds | 38c | 102.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Illinois State Redbirds | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 25.3%64 W · 189 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Bradley Braves | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 239 | 48.1%115 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Illinois State Redbirds | 36c | 68.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 65.9%89 W · 46 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Bradley Braves | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Illinois State Redbirds | 37c | 50.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Illinois State Redbirds | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Illinois State Redbirds | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Bradley Braves | 75c | 43.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…2e74backed Bradley Braves | 62c | 41.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Illinois State Redbirds | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…ee84backed Bradley Braves | 62c | 40.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Illinois State Redbirds | 39c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Illinois State Redbirds | 35c | 30.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Bradley Braves | 61c | 25.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 814 | 53.1%432 W · 382 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Bradley Braves | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Bradley Braves | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…a6abbacked Bradley Braves | 72c | 16.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Bradley Braves | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Bradley Bravesthis page
- Spread: Bradley Braves (-3.5)Bradley Braves won
- Spread: Bradley Braves (-4.5)Bradley Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.