World Politics · resolved market
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c312aa3ae7c7db55152ab9277a924310652f3118ab72f5ffd2669a1b21162d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked No | 20c | 7,250$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 9c | 5,918$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.78 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 80c | 4,216$3,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 12c | 4,123$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.43 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 74c | 4,036$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.3 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 3,926$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.2 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked No | 26c | 3,479$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e60…ae42backed Yes | 76c | 3,298$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…f7e7backed Yes | 78c | 3,232$2,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked No | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 13c | 2,272$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.64 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 74c | 2,154$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.54 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 19c | 2,151$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.69 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 1,966$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.67 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 13c | 1,859$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.78 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 9c | 1,754$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.83 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 11c | 1,679$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.5 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…4730backed Yes | 76c | 1,478$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 75c | 1,407$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.64 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 21c | 1,398$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.19 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 1,179$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed No | 10c | 1,097$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 20c | 992.88$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 73c | 986$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 10c | 813$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…fc01backed No | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd58…2aacbacked No | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…df32backed No | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 7c | 742.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…fb23backed No | 26c | 663.57$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…7467backed Yes | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 73c | 655.59$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.57 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 24c | 640$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.4 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 7c | 567.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 16c | 565.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…c4c5backed No | 12c | 555.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…6099backed Yes | 77c | 550.16$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 12c | 535$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 9c | 527.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed Yes | 77c | 525.02$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 79c | 517.94$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 22c | 516$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed No | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 13c | 480.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 25c | 475$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Yes | 77c | 451.69$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 8c | 427.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 11c | 410$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…66edbacked Yes | 73c | 408.1$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 74c | 405.73$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.73 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 16c | 397.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 80c | 356.47$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 349.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.02 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…c461backed No | 22c | 326$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 25c | 325.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…865fbacked No | 24c | 323.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 27c | 321$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 27c | 315$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…e286backed No | 26c | 310.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…4cacbacked No | 20c | 291.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 11c | 291.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 17c | 287$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 21c | 277.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 276.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 79c | 273.36$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 10c | 268.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c45…7786backed Yes | 77c | 258.29$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 78c | 256.4$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…b529backed Yes | 78c | 245$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 27c | 240.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…3f3bbacked Yes | 69c | 240$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 79c | 236.66$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 28c | 218.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 205.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked No | 25c | 204.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…21babacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 197.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 77c | 194.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked No | 9c | 186.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…5a6ebacked Yes | 76c | 179$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed No | 24c | 177.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…6678backed Yes | 77c | 176.96$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 172.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 23c | 169.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 75c | 169.25$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…02eebacked Yes | 75c | 141.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 57c | 140.12$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 73c | 135.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?this page
- Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?No won
- Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.