World Politics · resolved market
Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cab9a0b87c43ee4704a33ce8386bcaff72357305895634dba7475f104e5799e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdebf…54eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,678$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…8825backed Yes | 1c | 1,674$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,173$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 35c | 916$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.52 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…a258backed Yes | 2c | 645.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…dffebacked Yes | 24c | 408.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 3c | 395.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked Yes | 22c | 247.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 80c | 156.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 63c | 111.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 79c | 49.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 45.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a96fbacked No | 66c | 40.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 69c | 36.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 79c | 32.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?this page
- Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?Yes won
- Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.