World Politics · resolved market
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e3533d61204daae31aad5ea2b76f6c86641647c9f06c334acb5df92c6fc561
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 1c | 9,262$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 79c | 8,176$6,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.12 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…e36fbacked Yes | 27c | 4,807$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f09cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,950$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 24c | 3,689$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.04 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…7fe9backed Yes | 10c | 3,511$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9826…e7febacked Yes | 16c | 3,211$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 17c | 3,205$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 16c | 3,200$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.12 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,457$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.47 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,414$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 2,300$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 11c | 2,206$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.7 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…b30dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,966$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…978fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,839$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…00f4backed Yes | 22c | 1,666$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdd…31acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,517$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.99 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…c246backed Yes | 18c | 1,508$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…69b7backed Yes | 16c | 1,332$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.41 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,128$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 10c | 1,086$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed Yes | 21c | 1,013$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.92 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 26c | 884.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.11 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 11c | 855.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 11c | 800$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 22c | 799.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 14c | 795.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 18c | 775.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 19c | 662$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7843backed Yes | 12c | 650$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 23c | 599.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 27c | 565$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.42 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 11c | 547.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 24c | 538.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 31c | 535.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 25c | 500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 27c | 498.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Yes | 18c | 497.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 14c | 458.05$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 12c | 420.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 401.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 27c | 400$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 20c | 392.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 10c | 373.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes | 27c | 369.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 363.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 30c | 337.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…8fb8backed Yes | 9c | 329.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed Yes | 24c | 310.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 27c | 307.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…5527backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…7134backed No | 75c | 274.99$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…2004backed Yes | 22c | 267.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 76c | 241.14$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f84…24afbacked Yes | 28c | 235.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 235.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked Yes | 23c | 230.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 11c | 220.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 72c | 204.59$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…21babacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…4cacbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fef4backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 78c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 66c | 199.1$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 191.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…d270backed Yes | 28c | 180.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…6d1fbacked No | 75c | 146.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 8c | 146.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed Yes | 26c | 146.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed Yes | 28c | 145.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 76c | 132.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 14c | 130.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b96…3a38backed Yes | 23c | 129.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…d826backed Yes | 25c | 121.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…4c80backed Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 119.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 21c | 116.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…3dc1backed Yes | 26c | 114.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 69c | 112.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed No | 76c | 111.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac8…074bbacked Yes | 25c | 110.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…fb23backed Yes | 24c | 109.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9062backed Yes | 28c | 108.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 104$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 11c | 98.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 12c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…9c2cbacked Yes | 23c | 95.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…91febacked No | 74c | 94.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…31fbbacked No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?this page
- Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?Yes won
- Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.