Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3fdea6343cef5fb9c8aa5fcc1961a8caca62e72410b7cfcba20ec73a9afa105
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x183d…1270backed Yes | 19c | 20,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 20c | 11,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 80c | 3,978$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.6 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Yes | 20c | 1,279$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked No | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 21c | 1,191$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed No | 80c | 929$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 884.5$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.78 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 21c | 479.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…bcdfbacked No | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 297.93$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 14c | 242$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 20c | 223.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 19c | 215.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 19c | 204.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 13c | 200.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 21c | 200.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…6bcfbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…eb5cbacked Yes | 5c | 197.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 18c | 177.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 19c | 176.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…d9ccbacked Yes | 21c | 172$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 20c | 138.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 21c | 98.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…237dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…3e18backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 20c | 84.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed56…a1f2backed Yes | 21c | 74.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…1c03backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 25c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 19c | 68.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed No | 80c | 41.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…f396backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…6575backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…a6abbacked No | 80c | 18.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 79c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 80c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.