Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1255f7053ab31ea7176a9c009ea9514ca05f9909e9a8a7502e763a68ea1202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 9,467$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.22 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 3,504$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 74c | 2,318$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.82 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…3561backed No | 76c | 2,002$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…b5b8backed Yes | 24c | 1,995$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 24c | 1,553$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.82 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 1,473$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 76c | 485$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 24c | 419.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 6c | 325.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 76c | 235.13$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3792…792cbacked Yes | 24c | 235.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 234.66$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.66 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 25c | 174.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 129.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 19c | 107.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed No | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 79c | 97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Yes | 24c | 94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 31c | 78.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…2254backed Yes | 24c | 61.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 73c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 76c | 27.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…d8c4backed No | 77c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…cb61backed No | 77c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f22…7f5cbacked No | 77c | 16.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 76c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-02-14?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.