TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Team USA Stars vs. Team USA Stripes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team USA Stripesof Team USA Stars, Team USA Stripes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$162,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$170,134

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,181 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5ea…52dbbacked Team USA Stars0c23,390$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.367546.7%35 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d10…e270backed Team USA Stars46c21,000$9,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,659.985139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Team USA Stars14c15,689$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.1314533.1%48 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Team USA Stripes54c12,000$6,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,479.9929748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Team USA Stripes54c10,297$5,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,736.7319754.3%107 W · 90 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+20.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Team USA Stars45c6,811$3,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,064.9129055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team USA Stars1c6,680$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5862144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Team USA Stars1c5,741$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.568820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaff…f689backed Team USA Stars45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa31…924fbacked Team USA Stripes55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8002070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x089e…6e0ebacked Team USA Stars47c4,000$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.999442.6%40 W · 54 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team USA Stars18c2,895$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.393,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Team USA Stars44c2,435$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.5250346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Team USA Stars45c2,385$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.1982442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Team USA Stars54c2,227$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.513534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Team USA Stripes53c2,150$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.56451.6%33 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Team USA Stripes71c1,417$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.366756.7%38 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e5…f7ecbacked Team USA Stars56c1,407$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.834845.8%22 W · 26 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Team USA Stripes55c1,350$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.511940.3%48 W · 71 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Team USA Stripes54c1,275$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.513954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team USA Stripes54c1,200$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55213452.2%70 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Team USA Stripes56c1,155$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Team USA Stripes54c1,026$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.998541.2%35 W · 50 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Team USA Stripes55c1,000$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.835156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Team USA Stripes56c1,000$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.0717940.2%72 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Team USA Stars44c934.51$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.824048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Team USA Stripes58c932.63$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.942645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Team USA Stripes63c896.08$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.5550241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x240d…a928backed Team USA Stripes57c882.02$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.0216440.9%67 W · 97 L-13.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Team USA Stripes58c859.8$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.81,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa42…2ff3backed Team USA Stripes70c854.68$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.991625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b07…96febacked Team USA Stars12c841.72$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Team USA Stars46c725.59$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.161,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43c6…e2c5backed Team USA Stars45c682.15$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Team USA Stripes54c675$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.5927848.9%136 W · 142 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Team USA Stars33c588.44$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8536718.5%68 W · 299 L-36.8wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Team USA Stars45c548.42$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.791546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Team USA Stripes55c545.45$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.452171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf1…d72dbacked Team USA Stripes57c523.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7293…c0d5backed Team USA Stars45c511.95$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5f7…b677backed Team USA Stars46c450$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team USA Stripes49c434.62$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.051,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fba…1404backed Team USA Stripes70c404.94$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.511450%57 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc05a…9bf0backed Team USA Stripes59c401.05$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Team USA Stripes54c400.55$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1421743.8%95 W · 122 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8a4…75c1backed Team USA Stars51c396.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3312858.6%75 W · 53 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60e0…2429backed Team USA Stripes53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.36580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick37cpaid+92%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Team USA Stripes54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.37825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-53.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Team USA Stars44c364.93$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.578154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team USA Stars34c330.2$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.650651.2%259 W · 247 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Team USA Stars42c327.14$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.447028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Team USA Stars45c316.95$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6315147%71 W · 80 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Team USA Stripes64c312.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5118764.7%121 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9af7…02a6backed Team USA Stripes56c310$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.41070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe84f…0583backed Team USA Stars46c300.67$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.31812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.47per pick60cpaid-82.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Team USA Stars43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12960944.8%273 W · 336 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Team USA Stars43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12964347.7%307 W · 336 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf878…05c1backed Team USA Stripes20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick13cpaid+144.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Team USA Stars44c299.98$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9973131.1%227 W · 504 L-3.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Team USA Stripes80c281.39$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2815551.6%80 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team USA Stars44c269$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.364,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Team USA Stripes18c264.94$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3615534.2%53 W · 102 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked Team USA Stripes54c262.17$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.81560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+663.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Team USA Stripes42c259.44$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.481,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Team USA Stripes52c254.63$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3229551.9%153 W · 142 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Team USA Stars42c246.55$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.126034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Team USA Stars33c232.53$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.128643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e2…e9f0backed Team USA Stripes55c229.98$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.492343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Team USA Stripes53c219.75$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2829245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Team USA Stars46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Team USA Stars46c216.79$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6915245.4%69 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Team USA Stars48c206.25$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983636.1%13 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Team USA Stripes54c200.93$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4316740.1%67 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb03…5ae4backed Team USA Stripes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5033860.9%206 W · 132 L+23.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b0c…0f28backed Team USA Stripes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Team USA Stripes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9052242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18ff…1721backed Team USA Stars46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…edeabacked Team USA Stripes55c194$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.31855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…1259backed Team USA Stars46c194$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.241435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Team USA Stripes53c192.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.72,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…ea0fbacked Team USA Stars44c190$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.62142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb86d…3c53backed Team USA Stars45c188.89$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8547134.2%161 W · 310 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Team USA Stripes55c178.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3225056.8%142 W · 108 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…5964backed Team USA Stripes79c176.71$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.625940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Team USA Stripes32c168$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.911637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…e860backed Team USA Stripes69c151.81$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.81633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9a…7ef9backed Team USA Stars46c150.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.53644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5c…a4fcbacked Team USA Stripes20c149.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+236.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Team USA Stars31c147.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.496621.2%14 W · 52 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…bf55backed Team USA Stripes55c145.45$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4571053.9%383 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Team USA Stars43c137.21$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595558.2%32 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Team USA Stars26c134.48$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3524436.1%88 W · 156 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc465…c35dbacked Team USA Stripes57c131$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.333100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Team USA Stripes55c127.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.279552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Team USA Stripes79c126.53$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5346348.4%224 W · 239 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Team USA Stripes57c121$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2423139.8%92 W · 139 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Team USA Stripes60c120.57$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.231,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a1…075abacked Team USA Stars25c120.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c6b…e258backed Team USA Stripes57c118.14$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ae5…5e36backed Team USA Stripes53c113.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.213850%19 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.