TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,282 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed No75c10,229$7,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,606.873,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes29c9,051$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,624.7938748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Yes29c7,443$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.524854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes2c5,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.18per pick20cpaid+199.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed No71c3,001$2,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.2910154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No71c2,606$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.971,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes21c2,192$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.562,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No71c2,005$1,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.4517251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked Yes30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506726.9%18 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No71c1,432$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.2853645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No78c1,043$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.2315064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Yes32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No77c909.61$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.219476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No73c805.27$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.711,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes30c799.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24035856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Yes29c600$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1745044%22 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5113…f0babacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-45.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No68c495.65$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed Yes6c444$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.643129%9 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed No69c432$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9218545.9%85 W · 100 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.89621.9%21 W · 75 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9493…7988backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Yes31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1249549.5%47 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Yes29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1162920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes17c399.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6813129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed No69c347.83$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.832969%20 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9453…6952backed Yes59c336.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009250%46 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes31c310.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.434547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873122.6%7 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes29c273.15$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4463645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6231145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb702…6bcfbacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5848146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked No68c192.82$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8210051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e52…2320backed No77c155$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.655364.2%34 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.55752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes32c130$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.610946.8%51 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd257…d215backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108517.6%15 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes30c116.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4978248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed No69c107.34$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2814642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf99d…f867backed Yes29c106.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.452958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed No48c104.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.592740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes32c103.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…13eebacked No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324075%30 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94f8…3ec6backed Yes30c83.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No41c79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6113139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed No69c72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.328950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49b8…1417backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0768…1783backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017547.4%83 W · 92 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x020a…4b8abacked Yes32c61.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d9…7e2ebacked Yes32c60.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bf4…4cf8backed Yes32c59.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No42c56.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7723842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58b…cba8backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.510258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.520251%103 W · 99 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x522f…79c2backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe579…ba5ebacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.962483.3%20 W · 4 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…7e1bbacked Yes53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked No71c45.02$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0610552.4%55 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed No69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9510262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ef…0b77backed No70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.862365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f0…ad99backed No44c42.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.611376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+64.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed No69c40.01$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.233234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes32c39.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.554151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d3…2d0fbacked Yes55c38.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e78…70c7backed No71c36.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.682254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd258…9dfdbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No45c29.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6538151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bd…616cbacked No69c27.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.593959%23 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65a6…3e59backed No70c27.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.143650%18 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6721051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55c…a6abbacked No71c24.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.223100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ced…da99backed No69c24.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122d…bcb1backed No69c23.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3b…6583backed No47c23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.195563.6%35 W · 20 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4119…96f0backed No69c21.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939e…133cbacked No69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No78c21.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6520153.7%108 W · 93 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeed9…6546backed No69c20.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51a…9f88backed No69c20.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc88…1bfcbacked No69c19.13$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9146…241abacked No69c17.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac8…787dbacked No69c17.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x662f…c8d0backed No69c16.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No69c15.45$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.796470.3%45 W · 19 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.354153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.