TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$280,711
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$299,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,711 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac44…fbd7backed Yes41c105,849$43,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,328.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed No25c19,675$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No61c16,303$9,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,941.694341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9963…32e4backed No58c14,000$8,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,159.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No59c10,513$6,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,206.11,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked No56c9,805$5,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,509.534854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No47c9,461$4,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,429.373,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No60c9,186$5,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,511.325549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No59c9,185$5,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,419.154938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No59c9,178$5,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,415.024658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes39c9,000$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,49033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No61c8,663$5,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,298.5269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked No60c7,900$4,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,739.48037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No60c7,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2008752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes40c6,500$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No46c6,409$2,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,961.262,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes60c5,164$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.51,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes39c3,409$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.215064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No51c2,972$1,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.4275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No61c2,868$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.4838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed No59c2,364$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No61c2,245$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.4511354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No61c2,200$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No58c1,928$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.5617251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes75c1,846$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.191,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No46c1,758$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.8633938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No60c1,686$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.3435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes39c1,583$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.49476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb32a…e349backed No61c1,400$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459c…83f0backed Yes39c1,280$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+105.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes39c1,280$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.87639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Yes20c1,259$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No59c1,220$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes40c1,100$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6605425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes38c1,015$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.324050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ae6…3cbebacked No62c831.02$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2360%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes38c829.77$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.3749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes39c800$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48822747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes38c789.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.471936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No6c751.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7422332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No61c634$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes39c607.26$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.439937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No16c600$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes73c595$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6313139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes42c570$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.738055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Yes39c520.51$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.515848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8217549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Yes42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.198532.9%28 W · 57 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes39c456.37$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.734342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed No45c435.27$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.451136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9119…0de2backed Yes69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…af9dbacked Yes38c410.07$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671d…1548backed No61c400$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No60c400$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked Yes39c400$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No5c382.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.333737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes39c350$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.56136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes75c339.15$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3522669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked No61c331.93$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6810051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes71c315.35$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1710251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed No63c270.27$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.276450%32 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Yes41c266.89$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.181656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked Yes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba0d…9a6ebacked No62c255$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d61…e96dbacked Yes39c250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked No59c247$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.733748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Yes52c244.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5624541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.279951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes77c217.94$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.135100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed No20c210$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1226645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1222352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked No25c199.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9913129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf703…9f55backed Yes76c196.97$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1110…0123backed Yes77c188.65$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.391872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+17.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes40c183.55$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.131241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa555…d816backed Yes75c165.29$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…799bbacked Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes38c144$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b4…f6d1backed Yes23c131.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.841450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Yes38c131.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.538950.6%45 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7511250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes39c123.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed Yes14c120.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.54734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc4…701abacked Yes39c120$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed No26c111$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8610641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes70c107.14$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.141338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d0…c927backed No19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202218.2%4 W · 18 L-6.5wins-0.29per pick48cpaid-68.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9493…7988backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234443.2%19 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes43c99.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9913851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed No64c93.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Yes74c89.5$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2714642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes38c84.21$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2120436.3%74 W · 130 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39f…0af2backed Yes76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3de…3842backed Yes19c75.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.39825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071c…bab9backed Yes20c75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes39c75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.