Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422811ccf16c20cc051d737b62426dc50b75ad2212d6431469f7b4ba48a9c2bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 3,418$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.16 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 2,550$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.79 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 80c | 1,188$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 1,137$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 31c | 1,129$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 62c | 1,127$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.66 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 1,102$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.39 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 21c | 1,010$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed No | 69c | 999.97$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 861.41$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 749.71$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.41 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 25c | 706$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.46 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 80c | 540$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 31c | 485$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…a0f4backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 69c | 399.97$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 31c | 311.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 69c | 303.28$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 70c | 301.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 23c | 204.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 24c | 170.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 25c | 153.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0abd…7207backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 70c | 146.69$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 70c | 139.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 30c | 126.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…41bebacked Yes | 11c | 117.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 23c | 105.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…1bf2backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…688dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…6ca4backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 73.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…bf29backed Yes | 30c | 69.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 74c | 64.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc476…a690backed Yes | 31c | 64.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…f56cbacked Yes | 31c | 63.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 30c | 58.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 30c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7b…1659backed No | 71c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d0…fc25backed No | 70c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…bd5dbacked No | 70c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3da…3320backed No | 71c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d9…bdd5backed No | 70c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…c976backed No | 70c | 20.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f2…9e63backed No | 70c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a55…b5babacked No | 71c | 17.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…0443backed No | 70c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-14?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.