TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,401

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,566 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes79c7,024$5,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,474.884182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No22c4,793$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.773663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x135d…1f4bbacked No3c2,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No12c1,971$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+154.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No8c1,641$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.541227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+246.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No14c1,142$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.88728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick12cpaid+78%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…a4f5backed No30c922.04$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No19c842$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.983218.8%6 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xceb4…fe12backed No69c810.33$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes26c701$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes27c636$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+219.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfcd…c0f2backed No43c620$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.4250%0 W · 25 L-6.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes61c571.47$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2314241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed No74c475$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed No74c459$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+130.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked No73c403$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202114.3%3 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No57c400$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c399.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed No72c357$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+136.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes28c357$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed No74c352$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes26c352$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.48475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+89.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09a9…aa84backed No72c345.49$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No24c307.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.242810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x631c…450fbacked Yes75c289.78$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.88825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No71c282.56$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed No66c248.41$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.738250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecd8…3137backed No33c242.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No73c236$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes27c236$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No73c233$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No18c217.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb675…3d65backed Yes35c217.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.123060%18 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes25c213$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.485942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No28c206.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.143930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No26c204.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.28433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1243336.4%12 W · 21 L-6.0wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+84.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes27c186.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes33c166.11$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1125042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed No70c158$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes30c158$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d9…f359backed Yes34c156.3$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.75450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+168.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0196…d9f9backed No66c150.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes22c149.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9914935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked No75c140$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-74.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes26c126$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.24580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes69c125$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.692458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes26c118.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.642653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes65c117.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.442040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No9c112.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes26c107$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd444…aba5backed No67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314727.7%13 W · 34 L-13.0wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-59.9%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x2c71…a36dbacked Yes33c99.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.991573.3%11 W · 4 L+5.8wins+0.38per pick35cpaid+271.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No57c99.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c98.63$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.521,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No30c98.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.52156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-76.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No67c91.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.12665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes26c90$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No74c90$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e6…19f5backed Yes31c89.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c85.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes18c84.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0422641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No65c82.87$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.861136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No63c80$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.82626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2559…2ef4backed Yes30c79.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.97580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+136.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes73c74.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.47751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c6b…13c6backed No27c74.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe42f…be79backed Yes76c71$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No37c70.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.791450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes26c67.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.773231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a7…f3c0backed No60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c63.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe92e…7ba9backed No37c53.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdb…2fb8backed Yes40c51.24$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf8…2488backed No34c51.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No31c50.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.664916.3%8 W · 41 L-9.8wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-69.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No31c50.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7233618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No74c49.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.071560%9 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfab4…4c19backed Yes26c46.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.67580%4 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.44per pick36cpaid+130.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee58…996cbacked No79c40.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff77…4b76backed Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.42035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No68c39.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.061758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1784…7a77backed No69c39.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x658f…8aa2backed No72c36.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba54…409fbacked Yes67c35.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9956…1d76backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa302…b9a0backed Yes42c30.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+96.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7954…2b02backed No43c27.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes60c27.46$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.891855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+53.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed No74c25.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.071030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4268…f175backed No75c25.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc379…b246backed No76c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes65c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.