Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc1dcb14a793960b24348df8d2fb56510ccf115b916eab224446ac1b4ae9642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,827$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,853$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…5bcbbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 9c | 999.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 784.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 566.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 6c | 554.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 9c | 456.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 423.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 412.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 10c | 369.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 344.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…07adbacked Yes | 12c | 277.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…f359backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 178.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…7151backed Yes | 10c | 168.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 96.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 10?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.