Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb5f71be9a9d6f7b845fa3fa2abd2c57bfc472d8e5bebb9bfb16e8b103b75c64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeff6…578bbacked No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 73c | 7,704$5,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.04 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 5,081$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.56 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 22c | 2,457$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.65 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +246.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…199abacked No | 1c | 2,193$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 1,454$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +78%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,066$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed No | 53c | 956.99$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 932.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed No | 51c | 762$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.88 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 48c | 668$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 10c | 568.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 52c | 564.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 51c | 483.67$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…9ee3backed No | 16c | 468.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 11c | 465.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 45c | 400$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 52c | 395$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 48c | 373$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 52c | 273$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 269$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 54c | 268.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 52c | 245$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 48c | 245$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 34c | 245$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 55c | 236.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 9c | 197.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 43c | 196.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked No | 16c | 183.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 48c | 171.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc63e…9d66backed No | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 25c | 112.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93a…39ddbacked No | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 107.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…8856backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -8.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…e7a0backed No | 34c | 99.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 21c | 99.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 96.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…3bdebacked No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 43c | 72.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a5…2280backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cc…ae8dbacked No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…a4f5backed No | 49c | 41.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…d49cbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 36c | 39.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…4c19backed Yes | 35c | 33.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…2653backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f5…528fbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654e…a835backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…f175backed No | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…4956backed No | 69c | 20.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed No | 65c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 10?No won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.