Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d4691705e7faf887878a43c9de85300978b6ea6b06c0ca4d8345d75dc0b2ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e50…199abacked No | 0c | 12,037$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 3,027$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…fe12backed No | 33c | 1,809$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…cf55backed No | 33c | 1,540$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 3c | 1,184$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 72c | 975.17$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 22c | 934$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 64c | 874.86$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.95 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…3bdebacked No | 21c | 649.37$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 78c | 642$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 79c | 598$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 22c | 556$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 68c | 499.96$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.59 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…1535backed No | 31c | 383.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 21c | 349$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 346.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…883ebacked No | 29c | 346.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 311.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 19c | 305$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed Yes | 77c | 279$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 79c | 208$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 11c | 202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…607abacked No | 33c | 198$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9923…353abacked Yes | 67c | 198$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 21c | 186$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 53c | 180$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 78c | 179$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c31…610dbacked No | 35c | 157.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 144.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…44dcbacked No | 29c | 137.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 137.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 78c | 113$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 102$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…2657backed No | 30c | 100.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3eb…4bd4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 22c | 95.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a8…10c4backed No | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…97adbacked Yes | 71c | 71.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 72c | 48.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…bfd4backed No | 27c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…4956backed No | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472d…294cbacked No | 54c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…c50dbacked Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 39c | 26.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b21…a31fbacked Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…583bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c2…3e7dbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1784…7a77backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…f6d0backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 10?No won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17?Yes won
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.