Middle East · resolved market
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c8a5faadc9bb2dcb5220a87c67ac94ddeb617d614d3b058e70b5353d3df877c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 23c | 2,533$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 20c | 1,913$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 18c | 1,394$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…f9e9backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ba…dc55backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…feb9backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6a…1435backed Yes | 9c | 1,040$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…0326backed Yes | 9c | 1,030$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 17c | 1,010$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…4249backed Yes | 10c | 1,010$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…0fd4backed Yes | 9c | 1,010$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 80c | 1,001$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…2b44backed Yes | 10c | 990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb043…a4fcbacked Yes | 10c | 940$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 80c | 912$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 77c | 875$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4636…25f4backed Yes | 10c | 850$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 77c | 835$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 77c | 823$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…82ddbacked Yes | 10c | 820$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…c8a5backed Yes | 9c | 737$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…11bdbacked Yes | 9c | 737$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1e…61e3backed Yes | 4c | 640$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…a955backed Yes | 4c | 620$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…2f00backed Yes | 4c | 610$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cfa6backed Yes | 4c | 610$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…25aabacked Yes | 7c | 532$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…d6a8backed Yes | 7c | 532$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…e154backed Yes | 7c | 532$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…b9e7backed Yes | 7c | 532$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…7f3ebacked Yes | 7c | 530$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf476…6872backed Yes | 7c | 530$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf552…7e03backed Yes | 7c | 530$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…600ebacked Yes | 7c | 530$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d06…531cbacked Yes | 7c | 530$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…569ebacked Yes | 7c | 530$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…eb34backed Yes | 5c | 495$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1c…0f81backed Yes | 5c | 456.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 18c | 369$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 320$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 14c | 218$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…96dabacked Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9e…67c1backed Yes | 19c | 123.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…cc3dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 108.7$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 67c | 71.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 52c | 40.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 38.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 24.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6985…afdfbacked No | 73c | 23.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…221ebacked Yes | 48c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 78c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…bbfabacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.