Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02682b23e68de146db1abd8fe26859478b24aeba246ee54a298d4f362bdf01f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc83d…dd18backed Yes | 28c | 9,801$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,744.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02dd…eae6backed No | 72c | 3,543$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030b…e8dfbacked No | 72c | 3,276$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…42c7backed No | 72c | 2,879$2,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…0ec6backed No | 72c | 989$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 28c | 855$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 65c | 735$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 33c | 507$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 65c | 481$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 23c | 414$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 32c | 373$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 33c | 372$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 67c | 370$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 369.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 70c | 368$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 31c | 344$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 31c | 339$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked No | 67c | 289$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 35c | 281$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 31c | 273$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 69c | 254$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 68c | 241$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 30c | 237$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 77c | 224$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 221.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 69c | 211$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 34c | 210$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 77c | 188$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 69c | 186$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 39c | 172$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 41c | 165.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 163$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 32c | 163$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 15c | 161.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 39c | 160$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 8c | 147$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed No | 69c | 139$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 68c | 118$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…62d0backed Yes | 16c | 106.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…780bbacked No | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 28c | 96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 22c | 87.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 67c | 83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 69c | 77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 14c | 72.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…7fc6backed No | 43c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 63.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…d070backed Yes | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Maxine Durand win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?No won
- Will Terri Pickens win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.