TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,277

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,237 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No17c921$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.572161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1802…b7d3backed No15c830$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed No13c821$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No14c816$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.522055%11 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed No14c773$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.221050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked No13c754$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.02825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed No15c742$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked No12c681$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.721330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No14c661$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.541533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8465…6cd7backed No13c572$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes77c469.07$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4448236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No33c458$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.981936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed No15c449$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed No15c437$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.551540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes79c426$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.462142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No21c426$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.462254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x246b…1196backed Yes77c405$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No35c386$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.13748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked No14c384$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.761010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0328…5cf9backed No18c383$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No22c374$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.982934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed Yes65c368$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.81546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No15c365$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No13c357$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.411625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No16c357$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1270%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a10…fbe0backed Yes73c338$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed No27c331$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.582540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes74c318$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.682050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes78c309$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.982133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed No13c301$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.131050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4628…ee62backed No13c281$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.531233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed Yes75c281$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed No15c280$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No12c279$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.482231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaef9…0acbbacked No15c275$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.251866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+123%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x21d2…3e62backed No23c271$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.681457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No21c264$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.521,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24d2…ea1dbacked Yes73c260$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.21060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No20c249.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.61,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed No13c247$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0d…1359backed No31c236.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes78c225$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.53740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No37c224$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.884645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed No13c220$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No27c209$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.433250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No27c197$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.193141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfda…5709backed No13c194$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.222334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No23c194$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.472450%12 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No6c192.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.47894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0032…4515backed No17c190$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No32c188$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.343234.4%11 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x787a…a54dbacked No13c188$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.441915.8%3 W · 16 L-5.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes67c187$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.713438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes67c186$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.382860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes72c184$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1713040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed No26c182$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes73c180$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.62642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No20c175$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3413130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85cf…a871backed No17c171$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No26c166$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.861758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No14c165$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No17c162$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.543745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes78c157.71$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2513650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes63c157$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.091346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaecb…cd87backed No17c154$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes77c154$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.424348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2008…e61fbacked No17c149$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No28c144$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.618444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca3…749abacked No17c131$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No13c129.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.969021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No17c126$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.861549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes77c125$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.752934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No21c118$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.782846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No17c117$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.591428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes68c113$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.163056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd911…53d8backed No19c105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed No27c102$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.292343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed No17c102$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.341844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…04c2backed No18c93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No25c92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+90.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf049…29fdbacked No12c92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042030%6 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.72050%10 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe506…3810backed No18c88$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa999…39c0backed No17c87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed No27c86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.222343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+97.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No17c85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.456152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes75c82.5$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.623240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked Yes77c82$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.861369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x150e…fd0dbacked No18c81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9b…1c56backed No23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.21233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf855…9037backed No16c79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d2f…247abacked No21c78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f9…9a35backed No17c78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes77c77$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.711553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes73c77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.791973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+27.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes77c72$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.563240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c1…f1f2backed No23c72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.