Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33b4a39b9f39a1ff2d9af5889ef9319171cdc8e26a1d68dc1a07ae786e540701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 1,355$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…c1eabacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…9a79backed Yes | 64c | 609.55$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 5c | 555.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…944abacked No | 2c | 527.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 40c | 493.71$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.89 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 7c | 438.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…4099backed Yes | 47c | 387.74$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.69 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 38c | 345$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 62c | 345$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 330.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 20c | 317.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 46c | 304.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 281.2$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked Yes | 33c | 276$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…87d9backed No | 30c | 272.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 48c | 268.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 51c | 219$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 213.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 76c | 210$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked No | 25c | 209.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 54c | 209.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…c971backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc569…d66fbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…de59backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc2…0e86backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c5…8770backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c09…e173backed Yes | 73c | 198.11$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 27c | 165$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 25c | 143.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb8…cf89backed No | 21c | 143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d26…43d2backed Yes | 45c | 142.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…d3bbbacked Yes | 70c | 142.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…0e4abacked Yes | 46c | 135.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…43eabacked Yes | 46c | 135$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5f…4619backed No | 55c | 132.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed Yes | 33c | 124$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…a339backed No | 55c | 117.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…7a77backed Yes | 46c | 117.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…9b5abacked Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 57c | 111.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…70cbbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 23c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 23c | 91.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 84.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 23c | 84.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 22c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 76.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 75.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 29c | 64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 55.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb66…1cf4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…83dcbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 63c | 49.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x763f…4bb9backed Yes | 34c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes | 68c | 30.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by March 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.3M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.