Music · resolved market
Will "Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4dba74e9a2ccd327bcc995d192c7e68786e31b804953d6d8bfa647a8af0bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 2,777$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…c6b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,563$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 58c | 1,187$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed No | 41c | 1,005$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 60c | 997$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 42c | 895$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 79c | 825.2$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.51 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +6.9wins | +0.31per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 50c | 805.2$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed No | 40c | 717$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…3a73backed No | 40c | 713$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 638.84$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.28 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 59c | 570$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 60c | 524$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 60c | 356$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 40c | 356$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 304$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 42c | 292$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 40c | 284$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 59c | 249$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6262…c517backed No | 47c | 227$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…e342backed Yes | 53c | 227$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 65c | 213.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.33 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 29c | 211.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…6447backed Yes | 60c | 193$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed Yes | 59c | 186$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 36c | 135.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…b7acbacked Yes | 73c | 100.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…0864backed Yes | 67c | 49.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 42c | 46.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will "Anxiety - Doechii" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will "So Be It - Clipse" win Best Music Video at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.