Music · resolved market
Will Ollie win Eesti Laul 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf55129640bd57133e59b11ae8fe6f245b0a3824450fea6252bc34c3023e5366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes | 28c | 2,765$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.86 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 73c | 1,479$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.9 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 23c | 919$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.92 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…0da3backed Yes | 29c | 894.34$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 28c | 540.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 25c | 468$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked Yes | 26c | 436$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 69c | 394.7$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked No | 74c | 363$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked No | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 75c | 321$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 25c | 321$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 75c | 317$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…7249backed Yes | 32c | 313.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf63e…c254backed Yes | 30c | 213.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60c4…bce5backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 171.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 170.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 75c | 151$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 22c | 139.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 104$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 98.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 14c | 96.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b628backed Yes | 28c | 74.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…c8dcbacked Yes | 35c | 56.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 25c | 54.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…b3c4backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…64e3backed No | 68c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…44b0backed No | 75c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 14.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ollie win Eesti Laul 2026?this page
- Will Clicherik & Mäx win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Getter Jaani win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Grete Paia win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Noëp win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.