Music · resolved market
Will Noëp win Eesti Laul 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe413a58a67acbb3f5773d4d8005c75810362032a3108d2abbab287b93b9c4f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 16c | 1,524$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.14 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 13c | 1,295$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 11c | 1,185$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 18c | 887$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 15c | 696$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 19c | 681$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 12c | 665$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 489.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…d6f8backed Yes | 28c | 267.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 16c | 252.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes | 11c | 201.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 160.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 150.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…350dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 90.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 13c | 79.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noëp win Eesti Laul 2026?this page
- Will Clicherik & Mäx win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Getter Jaani win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Grete Paia win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Ollie win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.