Movies · resolved market
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Harry Potter" on Hot Ones?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb43cb2495c14736cf2cb3f8943d13ec867e763cd6703d4b18317f4cd404e6172
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 41c | 655$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.45 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed Yes | 59c | 647$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…35b7backed Yes | 65c | 525.6$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed Yes | 59c | 274$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 21c | 259.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 41c | 239$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 201.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.44 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 30c | 105.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 79c | 63.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7728…f932backed Yes | 74c | 34.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…b111backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Harry Potter" on Hot Ones?this page
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Broadway" on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Da Bomb" on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Emma" or "Watson" on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Film" or "Movie" on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Gauntlet" on Hot Ones?No won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Kid" or "Son" on Hot Ones?No won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Michael" or "Dumbledore" on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Milk" or "Ice Cream" 3+ times on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "One Bite" on Hot Ones?Yes won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Sauce" 5+ times on Hot Ones?No won
- Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Scoville" on Hot Ones?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.