Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e048326f1d1ece87eb12ed7cb196116adb7c8d32ee0b4e21a2ecc74e9aa6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,790$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 8c | 2,019$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 14c | 1,139$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,078$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 78c | 1,006$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 4c | 978.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 9c | 951.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 12c | 883.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 12c | 841.09$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 11c | 786.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 26c | 582.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 6c | 548.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 545.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 532.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 476.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…2cacbacked Yes | 13c | 446.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 388.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes | 18c | 388.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 378.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 18c | 332.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 330.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 19c | 302$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 274.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e3…300ebacked Yes | 8c | 256.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 19c | 247$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 7c | 196.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 15c | 195.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 185.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 19c | 183$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 164.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 143.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…4677backed Yes | 15c | 122.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 108.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…2786backed Yes | 15c | 107.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 74c | 104.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 81.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…c336backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes | 26c | 58.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 77c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?this page
- Will Russia enter Toretske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.