Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe551bafd80afacc0b8004177d1742fed4b37be323d40ba6b06e16480580a6f3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 4,019$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed No | 2c | 3,029$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 2,701$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 17c | 2,615$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.89 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…53febacked No | 2c | 2,532$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d6…f60dbacked No | 9c | 1,690$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 23c | 1,489$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.01 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,475$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.78 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 6c | 1,240$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…2608backed No | 2c | 1,223$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked No | 13c | 1,094$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.04 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 19c | 1,065$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2948backed No | 1c | 1,013$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a27…4a53backed No | 2c | 833.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 14c | 803$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…0470backed No | 14c | 791.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 786.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…1f12backed No | 3c | 765.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…e68cbacked Yes | 49c | 762.6$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…5635backed No | 3c | 745.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 27c | 728.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 50c | 649.99$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 33c | 489.58$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.42 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ea…1f05backed Yes | 79c | 452.34$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…d4c0backed No | 2c | 427.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 67c | 400$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 17c | 387.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 57c | 316.91$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed No | 11c | 306.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 62c | 301.8$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…8cb9backed Yes | 64c | 293.64$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 45c | 280.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 52c | 192.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 52c | 191.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd349…bc73backed No | 61c | 170.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 47c | 167.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 63c | 157.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…f8c4backed No | 32c | 156.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 155.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…8916backed No | 10c | 142.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…51ffbacked No | 10c | 133$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 26c | 125.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 49c | 120.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 47c | 113.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 110.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 79c | 103.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 50c | 100.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 33c | 100.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…3f74backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee93…62d9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 56c | 99.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 56c | 98.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0388…1d8dbacked No | 13c | 93.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 59c | 84.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…e039backed Yes | 50c | 80.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1902…02d0backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 36c | 73.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 70.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…6735backed No | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 54c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 50c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 30c | 58.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 66c | 56.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…a58ebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe913…4b84backed Yes | 50c | 41.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 25c | 40.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…61dabacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…04debacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfad7…edf3backed No | 57c | 29.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…004fbacked Yes | 49c | 29.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 75c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcf…6702backed No | 38c | 26.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…a114backed No | 58c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?this page
- Will Russia enter Toretske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?No won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.