Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Toretske by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac448a0e82e8083a1a7471f4abea0216c06cf36017e524f19d0c5abb38de473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 1,985$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.68 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 35c | 1,864$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.84 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 74c | 1,577$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.37 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 74c | 1,483$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.65 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 59c | 1,430$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.65 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,411$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 36c | 1,269$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 68c | 1,247$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.98 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,013$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.44 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes | 28c | 999.96$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 65c | 761.18$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.91 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 32c | 727.59$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcf…4c67backed Yes | 48c | 639.97$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 52c | 515$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 68c | 510$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 38c | 494.82$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.48 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 34c | 446$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…c6c1backed Yes | 41c | 440$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 58c | 419.63$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.54 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 4c | 403.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 77c | 390.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes | 33c | 378$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…c157backed Yes | 13c | 374.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 349.15$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 73c | 346.36$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 57c | 333.37$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 62c | 323.84$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 70c | 310$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 38c | 304.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 28c | 295$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 36c | 288.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 282.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…8464backed Yes | 41c | 278.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 21c | 277.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 61c | 276$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed No | 66c | 276$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 30c | 264$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 34c | 259.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked No | 57c | 230$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 41c | 220.81$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 34c | 217.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 64c | 212.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 67c | 212$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 66c | 207$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 77c | 196.12$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 33c | 195$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes | 30c | 195$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 8c | 182.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 47c | 179.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 45c | 177.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 59c | 170.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 60c | 164.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…19b4backed Yes | 41c | 163.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 29c | 162.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…01d8backed No | 62c | 161.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 159.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 59c | 155$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 80c | 142.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 34c | 142$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 70c | 132$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…6375backed Yes | 11c | 121.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 30c | 113$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…2da6backed No | 71c | 100.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…1d05backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…88b8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b04…6632backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes | 41c | 96.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0920…3901backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.38per pick | 55cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed No | 76c | 87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 66c | 84.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…69a6backed No | 60c | 83.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 78c | 77.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 75.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aea…ee37backed No | 63c | 74.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…27aebacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…e3e6backed No | 69c | 72.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…6cb3backed No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…33b5backed Yes | 39c | 63.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 70c | 62.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…8153backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95ff…4febbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c4…eee1backed Yes | 39c | 53.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 34c | 52.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 70c | 50.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 31c | 50.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…6082backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 48.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Toretske by December 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?No won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.