Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7643e50b059d6b14ab4ffec60f490bd9bfcf63b8a21c22bc815a7fceabfeb0e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 19c | 16,395$3,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,058.33 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 1c | 4,574$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 71c | 3,698$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.63 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 31c | 2,977$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.01 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 2,008$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.75 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 23c | 1,925$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 70c | 1,887$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 66c | 1,777$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.88 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 67c | 1,476$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.52 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,435$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.57 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,315$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.59 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,024$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 64c | 958.16$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.94 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 33c | 886.11$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.82 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 16c | 860.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 26c | 768.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.42 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 740.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 738.22$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 68c | 710.61$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.71 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 663.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 603.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 22c | 595.68$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 576.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 34c | 573$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 35c | 550.01$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.89 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 78c | 509.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 503.6$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 29c | 500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.39 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff73…a11dbacked No | 67c | 489.15$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 21c | 481.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 25c | 473.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 454.34$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.18 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 26c | 412.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 402.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Yes | 42c | 399.6$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 398.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 394.05$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 392$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 70c | 385.05$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa154…2cacbacked Yes | 26c | 378.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b8…d72cbacked Yes | 5c | 366.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 357.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.94 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 30c | 353.55$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 74c | 347.91$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 337.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 31c | 320.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 36c | 320.46$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 20c | 314.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3431…2fe2backed No | 73c | 303.76$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 71c | 295.41$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 32c | 278.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 244.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 7c | 244.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 74c | 238.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 233.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 43c | 228.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 44c | 227.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 34c | 211$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 6c | 200.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…e122backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b05…ccccbacked Yes | 31c | 195.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 71c | 177.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 21c | 174.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked Yes | 34c | 174.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 77c | 171.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 59c | 169.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 50c | 168.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 36c | 166.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…1c90backed Yes | 30c | 166.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 65c | 153.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed No | 68c | 145$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 142.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 70c | 142.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 80c | 140.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…3e18backed Yes | 35c | 139.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 76c | 131.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 19c | 119.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 117.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 27c | 114.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 16c | 113.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 65c | 109.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 72c | 106.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…21fabacked No | 47c | 104.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0371…9821backed Yes | 44c | 102.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 61c | 101.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3a…5fd0backed No | 75c | 99.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…b03cbacked Yes | 30c | 82.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Toretske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.