TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8f3…e544backed No37c836.08$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.894930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes57c828$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.043951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed No42c800$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb20…40a6backed No36c781$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked No43c771$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.531866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+31.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed No42c758$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.361338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10bc…0451backed Yes57c751$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.93944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No43c733$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.192642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No42c709$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.783327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes57c660$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.82860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes57c631$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.333246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes58c623$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.662466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes60c621.41$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.6648236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed No43c607$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.012254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No43c598$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.143063.3%19 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes58c597$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.742343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes57c550$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes62c543.01$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.7313040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes57c526$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.182951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes57c505$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.152857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82e4…fa57backed No43c467$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.811145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes57c431$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No43c416$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed No43c406$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.583438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No43c398$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.142142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes58c387$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.543745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No43c381$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.833253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd11f…2d2cbacked Yes57c372$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.96837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes62c369$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.5628528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes57c361$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.233432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No43c361$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.232339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed Yes58c342$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.642347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes58c338$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.963161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No42c332$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.443141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed No44c323$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.121844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked No43c309$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.871947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460d…6232backed Yes58c308$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.361735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No43c301$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.432623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes58c298$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.164334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes63c289$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6124634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No42c283$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.862458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes58c274$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.082466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No42c274$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.081770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecd8…3137backed No39c269.23$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes57c266$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.385345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No43c265$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.953240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fb…3e92backed Yes62c254.27$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No39c249.54$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2213130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes56c246$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.242944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No43c246$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.782544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes57c246$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.781947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes58c236$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No31c230.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.075324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ff4…e4d7backed Yes40c230$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Yes58c225$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No43c212$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.161353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes61c205.85$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.9223130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes58c204$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.681741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No23c190.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.273132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b4…ed7fbacked Yes40c189$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed Yes58c188$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.962352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No42c180$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.63727%10 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes57c176$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.685750.9%29 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes56c175$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-51%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd8…9b58backed Yes68c170.34$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No33c168.66$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f83…7bf4backed Yes67c168.66$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.661060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ba…0705backed Yes40c168$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No49c161.31$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.956729.9%20 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes56c151$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd81…ae79backed Yes58c140$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed No43c138$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.341625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed No43c131$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.332665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc205…eec2backed Yes76c130.42$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.322055%11 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7ef…af8ebacked Yes40c130$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f1…311cbacked Yes40c124$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d71…2c9bbacked Yes40c119$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No37c118.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.434721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No43c117$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.313655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed No43c116$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.88862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+40.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No39c107.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8710244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa251…993fbacked No60c106$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.52330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba6…0fbdbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…f786backed No41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad0…cdc2backed Yes65c98.49$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No44c98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.123432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked No42c97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.742544%11 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa3…853cbacked Yes40c89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No41c87.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.671,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8a5a…d95fbacked No60c87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No37c86.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3813650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d44…d50bbacked Yes40c85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ce…cf90backed No60c83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-62.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3219…90ecbacked Yes40c79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+92.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f11…17f3backed Yes40c79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.